Presentations at meeting of the North American Association for Computational Social and Organization Sciences (NAACSOS)

Project investigators made various presentations at the 2009 Annual Conference of the North American Association for Computational Social and Organization Sciences (NAACSOS). The meeting was hosted by the Center for Social Dynamics and Complexity and the Consortium for Biosocial Complex Systems of Arizona State University, Tempe/Phoenix, and took place on October 23-24, 2009.

Guillermo Podestá gave a talk (co-authored by several other project participants) titled “Dynamic adjustment of aspiration levels in agricultural systems of the Argentine Pampas.” The talk introduced the concept of an aspiration level (AL) as a special outcome separating results perceived as satisfactory or unsatisfactory, and described how an AL can feed various decision mechanisms in an agent-based model of land allocation.

Initial results from the project’s model of agricultural production in the Pampas was described in a second talk, “Agent-based simulation of recent changes in agricultural systems of the Argentine Pampas” (also with multiple authorship). Mike North (Argonne National Laboratory, ANL) introduced a new tool to link two modeling frameworks: NetLogo and Repast. Chick Macal (also from ANL) discussed agent-based and general equilibrium models of global oil markets. All investigators, including Pam Sydelko (ANL), took advantage of the meeting to discuss progress in the current CNH project.

Meeting organizers from Arizona State University	Pam Sydelko, Argonne National Laboratory

>> View presentation on aspiration level and land use decisions [PDF, 1926KB]

>> View presentation on results from agent-based model of agriculture in the Pampas [PDF, 1329 KB]

Project Investigator Kenny Broad is new director of Center For Ecosystem Science & Policy at the University of Miami

Project co-investigator Kenny Broad has been named director of The Leonard and Jayne Abess Center for Ecosystem Science and Policy at the University of Miami. Established in 2005, the Center offers innovative undergraduate and graduate programs that allow students to integrate environmental science and policy into their educational experience, while emphasizing research and field work.

As an environmental anthropologist, Broad has directed major interdisciplinary research initiatives addressing diverse aspects of the relationship between humans and their environment.

The mission of the Center for Ecosystem Science and Policy is to create innovative, interdisciplinary initiatives that bridge the gap between science and environmental policy. The Center is the nexus for a new and flexible program that gives students the opportunity to learn in a problem-solving context and gain substantial field experience.

>> Get more info about the Center for Ecosystem Science and Policy

Project has strong presence in Argentine Meteorology Congress

Several project investigators participated in the 10th Argentine Meteorological Congress, CONGREMET X, that took place in Buenos Aires, 5-9 October 2009.

Three posters were presented at a session on climate variability. Maru Skansi characterized the spatial extent and duration of the 2008 drought using the standarized precipitation index (SPI). Federico Bert presented a framework for exploring agricultural outcomes of plausible climate scenarios 25-30 years into the future. Yongku Kim, Rick Katz and Balaji Rajagopalan described an approach to enhance the generation of synthetic climate series by reducing “overdispersion.” Angel Menéndez made a presentation during a panel on water resources, and Claudia Natenzon led a panel on climate disasters and vulnerability.

Maru Skansi	Federico Bert
Angel Menéndez	Claudia Natenzon

>> View poster on 2008 drought in the Pampas [PDF, 1210KB]

>> View poster on framework to explore impacts of plausible climate 25 years hence [PDF, 2236KB]

>> View poster on Enhanced generation of synthetic climatic series [PDF, 2400KB]

Katz teaches intensive course on climate extremes at University of Buenos Aires

Project investigator Rick Katz (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado) taught an intensive one-day course on statistical modeling of extremes in climate change at the Department of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences of the University of Buenos Aires. The course, which took place on October 2nd 2009, was attended by about 30 students and researchers from the University of Buenos Aires and other Argentine institutions, such as the National Met Service and the Navy Met Service.

The course covered the application of the statistical theory of extreme values to climate, in general, and to climate change, in particular. An innovative aspect was the incorporation of both trends and physically-based covariates into analysis of extremes.The course included two hands-on sessions using the library extRemes for extreme value analysis available within the open source statistical programming language R.

Rick Katz delivers one of the lectures	Dr. Celeste Saulo, Director of the Dept. of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences introduces the course
Course attendants listen to lectures	Hands-on exercises

>> Links to lectures and exercises

Bt Maize: A study of the adoption of technological innovations in agriculture

This project aims to understand how technological innovations that will shape agriculture over the next decades are adopted by members of a social system. As part of this goal, Carolina Favre and Carlos Laciana analyzed the historical adoption in Argentina of “Bt maize”—genetically-modified maize tolerant to attacks by Lepidoptera larvae (caterpillars). Their work was published in the June 2009 issue of AACREA Magazine.

The area planted with Bt maize in Argentina grew quickly after its market introduction in 1998, and apparently stabilized at 60-65% of the total maize area since 2004/5, the most recent publically-available figure. However, there are differences in adoption between our two study regions. According to data from seed companies, Bt maize adoption in northern Córdoba was 80-90% in 2007/8, whereas the corresponding proportion was only 60-70% in northern Buenos Aires. Differences between sites are apparently associated with the higher frequency of late-planting dates (due to lower rainfall during the winter) in northern Córdoba. As summer progresses, the number of individuals in successive generations of stem-boring insects increases, therefore late-planted maize in Córdoba will be more likely to suffer damage.

Favre and Laciana also collected information about maize hybrids actually used by AACREA farmers and interviewed technical advisors for two CREA groups (details withheld due to privacy considerations). Even though both groups were in the same region—and thus shared agroecological conditions—their adoption patterns were quite different. Group A showed an earlier adoption of Bt maize, whereas Group B took much longer. The differences between groups may be tied to strong influence from each group’s technical advisor. In Group A, the technical advisor was the same throughout the period studied, and had a consistently positive opinion of the innovation. In contrast, the technical advisor who coordinated Group B until 2001 was not supportive of Bt technology, and this was reflected in a low proportion of adoption; when a new advisor arrived, most Group B members started using Bt technology. These results suggest that social interactions, and particularly opinions from a trusted, influential source such as a group advisor, can play a strong role in technology adoption trajectories.

Carolina Favre and Carlos Laciana, authors of the study on Bt maize adoption.

>> See the full article (in Spanish) [~1Mb]

Project participant Rajagopalan receives prestigious award

All project participants want to extend warm congratulations to co-investigator Balaji Rajagopalan (Univ. of Colorado), who received the Norbert Gerbier-MUMM International Award 2009 together with co-authors K. Krishna Kumar (India), Martin Hoerling, Gary Bates, and Mark Cane (all from the USA) for their paper “Unravelling the mystery of Indian Monsoon failure during El Niño”, published in the journal Science in 2006. The award ceremony took place in Geneva on June 10, 2009, during the 61st session of the World Meteorological Organization’s Executive Council.

Geneva, 10 June 2009 — (from left to right): HE M.A. Gopinathan, Ambassador of India; A. Bedritsky, President of WMO; M. Jarraud, Secretary-General of WMO (back row); Mme G. Guiard Gerbier; B. Rajagopalan and K. Krishna Kumar

>> See online abstract of the winning paper

Complexity in human-natural systems: a symposium

A special symposium on “Complexity in Human-Nature Interactions across Landscapes” was convened by Drs. Jack Liu and Bill McConnell (Michigan State University) as part of the 24th annual meeting of the U.S. Chapter of the International Association for Landscape Ecology (US IALE 2009), which took place in Snowbird, Utah, 12-16 April 2009. The Symposium included 17 invited talks form various projects funded by the National Science Foundation’s Coupled Natural and Human Systems program.

Guillermo Podestá presented a talk on “Agent-based simulation of recent changes in agricultural systems of the Argentine Pampas”, co-authored by 12 other project investigators (including two staff members of AACREA, the farming organization working with us in this project).

>> See Podestá ’s presentation (PDF, 2.1 MB)

Why were wheat yields so low in 2008/09?

A previous blog entry discussed the severe drought in the Pampas. In an outreach article recently published in the AACREA Magazine (issue 342, April 2009), project investigators Maru Skansi, Federico Bert, and Fernando Ruiz Toranzo discuss the climate conditions prevailing during the winter cropping season of 2008/09. Poor conditions (initially dry soils, insufficient rainfall during crop growth, higher than average temperatures and late frosts) resulted in wheat yields that in many cases fell within 30-70% of average.

>> See the full article (PDF, 1.4 MB)

Elke Weber’s research highlighted by The New York Times

An article in the “green issue” of the New York Times’ Magazine (published on April 16, 2009) highlights research by project participant Elke Weber and her colleagues at the Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED). The article, written by Jon Gertner, describes the current state of research on climate change decision science.

In particular, the article mentions a research experiment on group decisions being conducted simultaneously in New York, Amsterdam and Argentina. In the experiments, a few (3-5) subjects deal with several quandaries. The first involves reaching a consensus on how to apply $5 billion worth of federal funds to wind-energy technologies. Should they spend it all on conventional  wind turbines? Should they invest some (or all) of the money on an as-yet-unproven technology that would employ magnetic levitation to create a huge, long-lasting, superefficient wind-powered generator? After the group comes to a consensus in each of the test segments, members are asked to figure out their own individual decisions.

In Argentina, AACREA farmers from different regions are involved in the group decisions. The experiment, being coordinated by Fernando Ruiz Toranzo, will provide insights that will enhance modeling of decisions in the NSF-sponsored project.

>> Read more on the research performed by the Center for Research on Environmental Decisions

Severe drought in Argentina

Project participants Maru Skansi and Silvia Núñez from Argentina’s Meteorological Service prepared a report on the recent drought conditions in the Argentine Pampas. During 2008, total precipitations ranged between 40 and 60 percent of “normal” values (1961-1990).

The severe drought has had large negative impacts on Argentina’s mostly rainfed agriculture. According to newspaper Ámbito Financiero (24 February 2009) the 2008-2009 production of wheat, soybean, maize and sunflower is estimated at 64.4 million tons,  a decrease of 24.8 million tons with respect to the previous cycle. The economic impact of this decrease is about 6200 million dollars, or 2.2% of Argentina’s GDP.

The spatial extent and severity of the drought is described by the 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for February 2009), which places in context cumulative rainfall anomalies since March 2008. The SPI, implemented by the Met Service with support from this project, shows very dry or extremely dry conditions over most of central-eastern Argentina.

More information about the SPI…

Workshop on land use changes, biofuels and rural development in the Plata Basin

Carolina Favre (Argentine M.S. student funded by the IAI) attended a workshop of social scientists from Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia collaborating in a project on land use and biofuels in the Río de la Plata Basin funded by the IAI and Canada’s International Development Research Center (IDRC). The workshop took place in Tandil, Argentina, on May 9-13, 2009.

Carolina presented a summary of progress in our agent-based model of changes in land use and structure of production systems in the Argentine Pampas. She also had an intense and productive exchange of ideas with workshop participants in preparation for her own thesis work on land use changes in the Argentine Chaco.

Group picture of workshop participants	Participants interviewed farmers from the Tandil region

Argentine researchers visit Argonne National Laboratory and the University of Miami

Federico Bert (School of Agronomy) and Santiago Rovere (School of Engineering), both at the University of Buenos Aires visited project colleagues at the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) outside Chicago. During the week of March 2-6, 2009, Santiago and Federico worked with ANL’s Mike North and Eric Tatara on the design and implementation of the second phase of the project’s agent-based model of agricultural production in the Pampas. This phase will involve endogenous formation of land rental prices in the Pampas, as well as a GIS space for visualization of model output.

After their stay at ANL, Santiago and Federico spent a week visiting project participants at the University of Miami. They met with  Don Olson to explore if the agent model and a systems dynamics model (i.e., two different approaches) arrive at similar results. They also met with Dave Krantz (visiting from Columbia University), Kenny Broad and Bob Meyer who provided useful advice on decision-making mechanisms.

Santiago Rovere, Mike North and Federico Bert in Chicago.	Federico Bert at the entrance of ANL’s Center for Complex Adaptive Agent Systems Simulation.
Dave Krantz (Columbia Univ.), Kenny Broad and Bob Meyer (Univ. of Miami), Santiago Rovere and Federico Bert.	Santiago Rovere and Federico Bert meet with Don Olson.